Coronavirus: Box Office Sees Possible $4B Loss Through March

Date: 2020-04-10    Author: Original Site

The impact in 2020 from Covid-19 (coronavirus) on the motion picture business cannot be overstated. That's as the closure of cinemas in China alone is approaching a loss of $2B to the global box office, while the disease has now seen spikes in Italy, South Korea, Japan, Germany，France and so on. What looked in late January as a possibly short-term, confined issue has now taken on enormous proportions, clearly on a human scale, and also on the film industry. As movie theater attendance has slowed in several markets, compounding the losses, an estimate we've heard in overall ticket sales impact could be as high as $4B worldwide by the end of March. A ringing question in distribution circles is how long the situation will continue. Says one source, "We are decision makers and problem solvers, but unfortunately because the problem is so unknown in terms of its degree, we just don't know how deep we're in. No one knows."

Italy, a mature major, brings up concerns of a possible spread onto the European continent. Currently, about 50% of cinemas have been closed there, including in the Lombardy region, which is home to Milan. Amid those closures, we hear some studios have also made the decision to delay releases of upcoming titles including The Invisible Man (Universal) and Onward (Disney), while local films are also being affected. Venice's Carnival events too have been called off and Paramount said this week the studio was altering the production plan for a three-week Venice shoot on Mission: Impossible 7. That was amid efforts of the local government to halt public gatherings in response to the virus' threat.

In fact, there have been further new cases in the past days including in Spain, Austria, Croatia, Greece, Switzerland, Sweden and UK. 

The situation in Korea ? which has been basking in an Oscars afterglow ? is particularly worrying as it is the world's fifth largest box office market. As we noted few days ago, Disney moved Pixar's Onward off of its date there while the Global Timesreports local pics Call and Innocence have also been delayed. The Korean Film Council said last week that attendance was sharply down; a challenge, we hear, is fewer screenings because there are longer periods between shows so that theater teams can sanitize auditoriums.

In Singapore the attendance was off by 64% in one week this month versus the same period last year.

So what are the studios doing? Apart from keeping in close touch with teams on the ground in the various affected markets and doing their best to ensure their safety as well as limiting travel and switching some local release dates ? which we may see more of depending on how the virus spreads ? their hands are somewhat tied. All of digital cinema related companies all around the world are in a stand-by position.

In China, 'Sonic The Hedgehog' china release date was postponed due to coronavirus

Disney's Mulan, a ballad to China ? which was expected to be the major driver on the film ? is looking likely not to have a day-and-date release in late March.

Marvel's Black Widow is scheduled for late April/early May in the rest of the world, and so hopefully would see a China release shortly thereafter if the theaters come back in time.

Universal's first time at bat with Bond, No Time To Die, has seen its Beijing premiere and press tour cancelled. It has an early April UK date with domestic the week following. Again, there was no set China date, but it now looks like 007 will be delayed. 

This coronavirus epidemic is unpredictable, but we can only hope that it will pass sooner.